A data-driven approach to analysing storms and cyclones in India

Dear readers,

According to reports from governmental organizations and NGOs, there have been 12 cyclones that have broken apart on the shores of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian coastal regions between 2020 and 2021. Yes, between a short span of 2020–2021, there have been 10 cyclones. Namely Gulab, Tauktae, Yass, Amphan, Nisarga, Fanni, Kyarr, Maha, Vayu, Hikka, and Bulbul.

There are many reasons that there have been increases in the occurrences of cyclones, one of them being climate change. Every cyclone is a devastating event that cost a nation, a lot of innocent lives and losses mounting up to crores of rupees.

This article tries to get some insight into the frequency of cyclones and try to answer some questions using graphs and datasets. The datasets used in this analysis are both open source and free to use, I have no ownership over the datasets and they are available in the public domain, the datasets are 1) Season frequency of Cyclonic disturbances during Monsoon from 1891 to 2019 — Indian Government Dataset 2) OurWorldInData, EM-DAT

• how many cyclones hit the shores of the Arabian sea, bay of Bengal, land in all these years?

There have been 609 cyclonic events in the Bay of Bengal from 1891 to 2018. The above are the statistics. We can follow a positive trend in the frequency of cyclones in June-September after 2000.

Approximately 78 cyclonic events took place from 1981 till 2018. The above are the statistics. We can follow from the trend line that the year 2000 marks the beginning of growth in the frequency of cyclonic events in June.

There have been 135 cyclonic events on the land from 1891 to 2018. The above are the statistics. We can follow a positive trend in the frequency of cyclones in June-September after 2008.

• which months does the most number of cyclones usually occur in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Land?

Most cyclones occur in June, and we can expect a cyclone in June and August every year, most destructive cyclones occur in August and September.

• is there a periodic pattern in the number of cyclones and cyclonic events and activities that occur in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, land?

Given a trend line of a polynomial with 4 degrees of freedom, we can see a wave pattern that follows after some years. And based on real life observations we can conclude that cyclonic events follow a periodic pattern but grow much stronger with time.

• how much loss do cyclones cost India every year in terms of lives lost, how many people are affected, become injured or homeless?

In total if we aggregate numbers from 1916 till 2021, 166770 people have died, 18437 people have been injured, 16952540 have been affected, 10054745 have become homeless, that is 14702536 lives long lost, and still suffering from horrifying memories, immense pain and health hazards. If we follow closely we can see how recently storms are affecting more lives than ever, follow the trendline for better understanding. This is the sheer impact of global warming, and climate change.

• how much does the nation lose in terms of property and money every year due to cyclones and cyclonic events?

Since 1916, India has lost $40290996 in land, property, money and other assets.

• how much money is kept aside in the state treasury of resources, for the purpose of natural calamities especially for storms and cyclones?

The government tries to allocate and secure ₹4062 crores for cyclones and related calamities. It is too less if you think about it. And emergency food and water to help small villages about 100 in number for 4 to 6 days is also secured.

• how does this affect the economic growth of the country?

Loss of home, Job and means of livelihood are main reasons. Storms and cyclones, bring with them destruction, death, loss of job, loss of houses, affected livelihood, prolonged poverty and increase in starvation levels, thus causing complex economic problems and damages that lead to complicated degradation of economies like India, and throw them at brink of inflation and break balance of trade and the economic equilibrium.

• what is the total economic damage from storms in all these years?

An aspiring economy like India, took a huge hit during this pandemic situation of covid19 and on top of that all these natural calamities, so as a result we see that economic damages have been surprisingly huge and more than the last few years, moreover it has been gradually increasing since 2002 and now it has shot up. Climate change is also a big factor.

• How have the death rates, injury rates, homelessness rates evolved and developed in these years?

Hope you got some insights on cyclones and storms in India, and how they have evolved and moreover become more destructive with time. Hope you found the article useful to some extent. You are free to use, share, reuse and redistribute the graphs used in this blog. Thank you for reading. Take care and stay safe. keep reading and learning, and if you wish to re do the analysis yourself, all the best with the data cleaning and proof checking.