14 years are a lot to learn from — 2008 is reoccurring in 2022
Why even after after 14 years, the face of reality has not changed, it is just the same. Only our problems have mutated over the course of time, adapting to the changing time. Why can new technologies not stop the global occurences and why war is of no good.
Dear readers,
Many people I know ask me, what is your reason for doing things that you do, but don’t necessarily need to do in this age. I merely smile to answer that I do what I love. The answer is far greater and it lies hidden in my inability to freely answer and my sheer laziness born of self freedom to not be answerable.
Though I have the least knowledge of economics and it comes to me like a child trying to tweak and tune parameters to optimise the solution to his math problem, using least computation yet the most accurate result. Economics is all about observation and optimization of solutions to problems, from least optimal, to most optimal yet costly in face of scarcity. So if you see anything that I might say is wrong or contradictory, I am open to learning from you.
Recently I am terrified by the occurrences around me. Since 2019 we are living through this pandemic and thousands of problems and crisises. But from 2020 to 2021, I don’t know why it seemed kind of smooth, but it came at the cost of my parents struggling to keep our small family comfortable and secure. But 2022 seems different.
Every years brings with itself some notion of high hope, but it is physics, the greater the fire the faster it extinguishes, so did the flickering hope month by month in 2021. 2022 is a year people no more hope, but live with the virus.
But this blog did not start with my tensions arising from the fear of COVID, it came from the darkness that was constantly attacking the temple of enlightenment, in short educational institutions. Our schools have opened in this uncertain time as the government has succeeded in hiding cases of COVID in India.
I don’t think it did any good, Students are drunk in the happiness that schools have re-opened and are able to meet their friends. Won’t lie, even I was happy, but 15 minutes into the first period of the school, it all came to a naught. Maybe it was a great relief for poor students who were unable to restart their process of learning online or were left behind because of them being unable to pay for the internet.
I was speaking to Ajay, a good friend of mine while going to school. His family business is of rice and related crops, they have 2 big shops and he has a interest in his family business and knows a great deal of this industry.
Out of curiousity I asked him, about the sudden price rise of rice and other staple food commodities like dal(lentils), wheat and millets. He frowned and exclaimed quite sadly that the time was grave.
He told me that, though prices of rice was increasing from RS 30 to RS 50, per kg and greater variants were seeing price surges by over RS 60, people were unable to buy rice. Their ability to buy basic commodities was decreasing, even the ration shops and controlled markets were unable to handle this situation.
To give you an idea of the situation, India is the second largest producer of rice, and the third biggest consumer market for rice, and also it is one of the biggest agrarian economy.
I asked him that were policies being formalised by the government, to which he answered that unfortunately there was no such thing, and though large producers received subsides on fertilizers and land, as well as power supply, small farmers were in deep soup.
Wanna know how?
Small farmers have a big thing to them, that is their land, but they lack equipments, necessary chemicals, young farmers lack training, scientific backing, money, and then comes in the middle man who would take in most of the farmers hard earned money. So most of the young generation is drifting away into other jobs.
A farmer’s average income has not increased considerably, if we keep a track of the increase in demand of agricultural products. Moreover the equipment are becoming costlier every year. So a farmer’s expenditure is increasing, while his income is stagnant.
So in these situations, farmers are selling their lands to industrialists to build factories on the land. While they move on to some other professions or sometimes farm cash crops instead the necessary crops.
But the demand for the crops keep increasing and the market is unable to meet the ends and many farmers are also leaving this industry, and government is privatising their lands. The price is increasing for this reason and people are unable to buy the basic commodities.
This is further increasing hunger in India, death due to starvation, malnutrition, and an out and out crisis of poverty. Accompanied by the ever growing unemployment rates and number of people being unemployed. There is no lack of job seekers in India. Here the people say one thing in Bengal.
Bhat chorale kaker obabh hoi na.
This literally means there is no dearth of crows if rice is thrown for them. There is an extreme dearth of opportunities.
This further discourages people from sending their wards to school, further increasing uneducation.
This is ladies and gentlemen the reality of India, this the life of the people of India.
Ajay and I both of us, have different way of thinking but we both united on into one conclusion that people are not Happy.
Upon that we have this Russia Ukraine tension. Let me be honest with you. A war is profitable for the companies who create equipments for wars and countries that wage and fight it, it is a filthy politics blind to people’s pain and sorrow and death of thousands of patriots, all cherry topped by the fake patriotism of some politicians. Most of the production at the moment will reach war camps, and not about 30–35% would be left for the citizens. So the previous scarcity will be increased by all notions. This is utter madness that we choose war and disintegrity over harmony and peace. It is greed that is valued more than love and keeping everything how it is, but uncertainty and change is inevitable over the course of time.
Now I am no economist to provide solutions to the problems this great, but I do know statistics and love to work with data.
I thanked Ajay for his information, and I quickly noted it all down. I didn’t know that I would ever write this blog. Until an event moved me.
Here I was lamenting and mopping about my little conspiracies of stars and planets, while an old man with 3 children was being mistreated and beaten for stealing food from the ration store. Not because he was poor, or because he was not presentable, but because he was a Dalit, a memeber of the lower caste, deprived of his rights to equality. Though I shouted and tried a lot, how much could a 13 year old in school uniform do from inside his school bus. Moreover the extreme fate of the man would be that he would be lynched by them and left alone to die while his children would cry at his feet, though this is rare and often is limited to heavy beating, this news won't be even spreading under bated breaths and whispers. This is how caste based cleansing takes place in India at a large scale.
This again is the reality of India, this blog is not only a reminder to people about what can happen when humanity diminishes and people kill their own morals and fellows.
I am writing this blog to remind people and change makers about the problems that prevail in this modern contemporary society and in a country as great as India. Trust me, don’t judge a Country based on the government, rather judge them based on their history, culture and philosophy, but ofcourse don’t be blind to the problems as well.
I have a very limited knowledge on this subject matter, many whom I surround myself with, know better about this than me.
These problems have returned in a periodic, vicious, cyclic pattern in history. Remember the Great famine of Bengal from the history book, yes the one in which over 8 lakh people died for no good reason other than that their food, all that they produced and stored for the rainy days was taken away by the Britishers. This was not the last time, it kept happening at scales small and large.
But that was the past. But do you consider 2008, a past. The rate at which we are moving on and living on, it seems a past but necessary isn’t. Remember all problems tend to increase gradually until they are uncontrollable, and then it take great effort to save people.
Remember the 2007–2008 world food price crisis that shook the whole world.World food prices increased dramatically in 2007 and the first and second quarter of 2008, creating a global crisis and causing political and economic instability and volatility. History bears witness that bad decisions and VUCAs have always lead to some crisis, and the house of thoughts that beleives that your problem is of no importance to me is utterly wrong. Any injustice, and any problem anywhere is a threat to everyone everywhere. the food price crises are the consequence of neglected investment in agriculture in many developing countries and inappropriate agriculture energy subsidies in industrial countries; they were triggered by adverse weather events and exacerbated by export restrictions. All this was the aftermath of 9/11 attacks.
The generations suffered into the 2011 as the aftermath of the 2007–2008 crisis. To add to the problems was the 2008 housing bubble crisis.
These so called modern problems are yet the product of a few problems, poor managed policies, trade sanctions on Middle-Eastern Asian countries and Russia, Russia-Ukraine tensions, Taliban overtake on Afganistan, COVID, and many more problems, and I can never forget the climate crisis. To add to the miseries not well maintained subsidies and also CORRUPTION.
Very soon another bubble will pop, it is the Carbon Bubble, it will happen as soon as Carbon credits would be brought to actions and penalties and charges will be imposed on carbon expenditures.
If people like me and you can’t yet see it, then here it is. The cost of living crisis, carbon crisis and food price increase, increase in poverty, increase in unemployment, increase in hunger and wars. People losing their ability to spend, disintegrity and uncontrolled market. These are all symptoms of a Global Recession that is upcoming. That is the danger. This is no sudden fluff or flux in the graphs, this steep increase and decrease game in the stats is the manifestation of life of people. We have to stop this before before it reaches a point of market collapse.
We need to learn from our mistakes that lead to similar issues before, 14 years a long time to heal and deal. and I am sorry but their is no room for arguments and blind faith, rather need for solutions and decisions.
Graphs for grasping the situation
I kept all graphs out of this dialogue-focused inclusive conversation to keep away all meaningless unintended biasness and prejudice. For graphs for better understanding and judging me, I will leave our world in data graphs to help you. And also add the data explorers for you to get a thorough intense research on the wider ranges of topics discussed.
This blog tried to focus entirely on the problems that I have identified in our world and so have others. I hope this was meaningful, and insightful. Thank you so much for reading, stay safe and keep learning.
